Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries

Nikolay Dmitriev; Tatiana Sitokhova; Victoria Brazovskaya; Kirill Alkin

doi:10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_250

VAK Russia 1.6.13 UDC 332.1 UDC 338.432

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EVOLUTIONARY TRAJECTORY OF AGRARIAN PRODUCTIVITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN BRICS COUNTRIES Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries

АА Аа

Published in INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL · Issue 2 · Pages 250–255 · Rubric: Environmental and food security

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_250

Received: 11.12.2025 Accepted: 14.01.2026 Published: 15.04.2026

Authors

Nikolay Dmitriev

ORCID

Tatiana Sitokhova

ORCID

Victoria Brazovskaya

ORCID

Kirill Alkin

ORCID

Nikolay Dmitriev

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University associate professor; head of the laboratory · Graduate school of industrial economics; laboratory modeling and digitalization of socio-economic systems · Russian Federation · St. Petersburg

ORCID

Tatiana Sitokhova

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Science rang: docent

North Ossetian State University named after K.L. Khetagurov head of the department · department of economics · Russian Federation · Vladikavkaz

ORCID

Victoria Brazovskaya

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University senior lecturer · Graduate school of industrial economics · Russian Federation · St. Petersburg

ORCID

Kirill Alkin

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University master’s degree student · Graduate school of industrial economics · Russian Federation · St. Petersburg

ORCID

ABSTRACT

The research is motivated by the need to enhance the efficiency of agricultural production in the BRICS+ countries and to ensure their long-term food security amid demographic imbalances, ecological and climatic shifts, and the depletion of natural resource bases. The objective of the study is to identify the evolutionary trajectories of agricultural productivity in the BRICS+ economies, to determine the drivers of differentiation, and to forecast food-security scenarios for the grouping. The analysis employs economic and mathematical methods using panel data from the World Bank for the period 2000–2025. Composite indices of Agricultural Productivity (API) and Agricultural Input Intensity (AII) were constructed using min–max normalization. The methodological toolkit includes Principal Component Analysis (PCA), panel regressions with fixed effects, Holt–Winters exponential smoothing with a damped trend, the Granger causality test, and VAR modelling. PCA reduced the dimensionality of the dataset and isolated two principal components explaining 74.58 percent of the total variance. Cluster analysis revealed four profiles of agricultural systems: highly productive desert economies (UAE, Saudi Arabia), resource-intensive continental giants (India, Brazil), moderately intensive systems (China, Egypt, Iran, Russia), and lagging agricultural economies (Ethiopia, South Africa). Econometric modelling detected β-convergence in API with a coefficient of –0.2391 and a half-life of 2.90 years. For labour productivity per worker the coefficient reached –0.6282 with a half-life of 1.10 years. Irrigated land area (influence coefficient 0.42 in the random-forest model), fertilizer consumption (0.31), and water productivity (0.27) were identified as the key determinants of efficiency. The Holt–Winters forecast to 2031, with extrapolation to 2050, indicates an increase in the average API to 0.44–0.52 under the continuation of current trends. The findings can be used to support strategies for technological cooperation, the creation of a joint agrotechnology transfer facility, and the formation of strategic food reserves, ensuring food security for an estimated 4.8–5.2 billion people by the mid-twenty-first century.

KEYWORDS

resource potential, BRICS+, resource intensity index, technological convergence

Funding

The article was published as part of the subsidy from the federal budget to higher education organizations for the implementation of activities aimed at supporting student scientific societies (agreement No. 075-15-2025-532).

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Dmitriev N. D., Sitokhova T. E., Brazovskaya V. V., Alkin K. A. Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries // INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL. 2026. no. 2. pp. 250-255. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_250. (Date of access 20.09.2026).

MLA

Nikolay Dmitriev, Sitokhova T. E., Brazovskaya V. V., Alkin K. A.. "Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL.2 (2026): 250-255. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_250.

APA

Dmitriev N. D., Sitokhova T. E., Brazovskaya V. V., Alkin K. A. (2026). Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries. INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL(2), 250-255. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_250

Chicago

Nikolay Dmitriev, Sitokhova T. E., Brazovskaya V. V., Alkin K. A.. "Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL, no. 2 (2026): 250-255. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_250.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Dmitriev N. D., Sitokhova T. E., Brazovskaya V. V., Alkin K. A. | title = Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries | journal = INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL | year = 2026 | issue = 2 | pages = 250-255 | doi = 10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_250 }}

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EVOLUTIONARY TRAJECTORY OF AGRARIAN PRODUCTIVITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN BRICS COUNTRIES Evolutionary trajectory of agrarian productivity and food security in BRICS countries

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