Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index

Oksana Shumakova; Olga Kryukova; Aleksandr Degengardt; Anastasiya Zagorenko

doi:10.55186/25876740_2026_69_1_65

VAK Russia 5.2.3 UDC 338.439 UDC 658.7 UDC 004.9

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SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF FOOD SYSTEM RESILIENCE BASED ON THE "AGROLOGISTICS 4.0" MODEL AND AN INTEGRATED INDEX Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index

АА Аа

Published in INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL · Issue 1 · Pages 65–72 · Rubric: Agrarian reform and forms of managing

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_1_65

Received: 04.12.2025 Accepted: 14.01.2026 Published: 15.02.2026

Authors

Oksana Shumakova

ORCID Scopus ResearcherID SPIN

Olga Kryukova

ORCID SPIN

Aleksandr Degengardt

ORCID SPIN

Anastasiya Zagorenko

ORCID

Oksana Shumakova

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Omsk State Agrarian University named after P.A. Stolypin rector · Russian Federation · Omsk

ORCID Scopus ResearcherID SPIN

Olga Kryukova

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Science rang: docent

Omsk State Agrarian University named after P.A. Stolypin head of the office · office of the rectorate and organizational development · Russian Federation · Omsk

ORCID SPIN

Aleksandr Degengardt

Omsk State Agrarian University named after P.A. Stolypin junior researcher · Russian Federation · Omsk

ORCID SPIN

Anastasiya Zagorenko

Omsk State Agrarian University named after P.A. Stolypin assistant of the department · department of management and marketing · Russian Federation · Omsk

ORCID

ABSTRACT

In the context of accelerating digitalization of the agro-industrial complex, there is a growing need for quantitative assessment of the impact of digital technologies and institutional changes on the resilience of food systems. Building on the author’s model of the digital logistics ecosystem «Agrologistics 4.0, » the paper develops an integrated macro-model of the deep transformation of global agriculture, comprising technological, climate, consumer and politico-institutional blocks. Using FAOSTAT data for 2015–2023, an aggregate index is constructed that makes it possible to assess the contribution of digitalization, changes in demand structure, government support and climate pressure to the dynamics of agri-food systems. Application of the chain substitution method shows that the growth of the technological and consumer blocks over the period under review is largely offset by the deterioration of the climate component, while the role of public policy is predominantly compensatory. A scenario approach is used to examine four variants of digital transformation up to 2035, for which the values of the integral index are calculated; factor decomposition of changes in the indicator is performed for the retrospective period 2015–2023 and for the «Breakthrough» scenario. Based on the results, practical recommendations are proposed for adjusting economic policy and digital instruments in order to enhance the resilience and forecasting accuracy of agri-food system development. The theoretical and empirical basis of the study includes peer-reviewed scholarly publications and industry statistics on digital logistics, food security, agri-system resilience and systemic risk modelling.

KEYWORDS

agrologistic ecosystem, food security, digitalization of the agro-industrial complex, sustainable development, data integration, risk forecasting, digital platforms, innovative technologies, adaptive management

Funding

This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) grant for fundamental and exploratory research No. 24-28-20382, «An evolutionary concept of the organizational and economic mechanism for the deep transformation of market laws, processes and barriers in global agriculture under the need to ensure the resilience of food systems».

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Shumakova O. V., Kryukova O. N., Degengardt A. A., Zagorenko A. A. Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index // INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL. 2026. no. 1. pp. 65-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_1_65. (Date of access 19.09.2026).

MLA

Oksana Shumakova, Kryukova O. N., Degengardt A. A., Zagorenko A. A.. "Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL.1 (2026): 65-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_1_65.

APA

Shumakova O. V., Kryukova O. N., Degengardt A. A., Zagorenko A. A. (2026). Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index. INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL(1), 65-72. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_1_65

Chicago

Oksana Shumakova, Kryukova O. N., Degengardt A. A., Zagorenko A. A.. "Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL, no. 1 (2026): 65-72. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_1_65.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Shumakova O. V., Kryukova O. N., Degengardt A. A., Zagorenko A. A. | title = Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index | journal = INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL | year = 2026 | issue = 1 | pages = 65-72 | doi = 10.55186/25876740_2026_69_1_65 }}

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SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF FOOD SYSTEM RESILIENCE BASED ON THE "AGROLOGISTICS 4.0" MODEL AND AN INTEGRATED INDEX Scenario analysis of food system resilience based on the "Agrologistics 4.0" model and an integrated index

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