Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis

Nikolay Dmitriev; Dmitry Rodionov; Larisa Aguzarova

doi:10.55186/25876740_2025_68_3_322

VAK Russia 1.6.13 UDC 330.1 VAK Russia 5.2.3 UDC 332.1 UDC 338.432

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DYNAMICS OF RUSSIA'S AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL IN CONDITIONS OF INCREASED PRODUCTION INTENSITY: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis

АА Аа

Published in INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL · Issue 3 · Pages 322–328 · Rubric: State regulation and regional development APK

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2025_68_3_322

Received: 17.12.2024 Accepted: 29.01.2025 Published: 15.06.2025

Authors

Nikolay Dmitriev

ORCID

Dmitry Rodionov

ORCID

Larisa Aguzarova

ORCID

Nikolay Dmitriev

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University associate professor at the graduate school of industrial economics · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID

Dmitry Rodionov

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University director at the graduate school of industrial economics · Russian Federation · Saint-Petersburg

ORCID

Larisa Aguzarova

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

North Ossetian State University named after K.L. Khetagurov professor of the department · department of finance, accounting and taxation · Russian Federation · Vladikavkaz

ORCID

ABSTRACT

The study is dedicated to analyzing the dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential under the intensification of agricultural production. The aim of the study is to investigate changes in agricultural potential, identify latent variables determining its transformation, and develop a composite index reflecting the level and trends in the development of the country’s agro-industrial complex (AIC). The research is based on the analysis of official statistics (data from Rosstat and the World Bank) characterizing the indicators of Russia's AIC from 2000 to 2023. The average annual growth rate of grain yield amounted to 3.2%, reaching 3,428.7 kg/ha by 2023, while fertilizer consumption increased from 11 kg/ha to 25.3 kg/ha. The share of agriculture in GDP decreased from 5.88% to 4.02%, indicating structural changes in the sector and adaptation to macroeconomic conditions. The methodological framework of the study includes regression modeling (including Lasso and Ridge regressions), factor analysis, statistical methods of correlation analysis, and the construction of composite indices. The results identified that the key factors influencing agricultural efficiency include the area of arable land, irrigated land area, fertilizer consumption, and the volume of grain production. The composite index of agricultural potential, calculated based on weighted indicators, increased from 0.31 to 0.67 over the analyzed period. Factor analysis highlighted latent variables explaining over 94% of data variability: the first factor reflects the impact of resource use intensity, the second characterizes production capabilities, and the third reflects macroeconomic conditions. The obtained results can be used to shape policies aimed at enhancing the efficiency of agricultural resource utilization, develop programs to stimulate producers, and outline development trajectories for the agricultural sector.

KEYWORDS

agro-industrial complex, factor analysis, agricultural potential, intensive production, composite index, macroeconomic indicators, statistical analysis

Funding

The work was carried out as part of the project «Development of a methodology for the formation of an instrumental base for the analysis and modeling of spatial socio-economic development of systems in the context of digitalization based on internal reserves» (FSEG-2023-0008).

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Editor-in-Chief

Aleksandr Fomin

Deputy Editor-in-Chief

Tat'yana V. Kazennova

Responsible Secretary

Irina Mamontova

Issue Editor

Gilyana Yakushkina

Literary Editor

Marina G. Fomina

Editorial

Redakcii Sotrudnik

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GOST

Dmitriev N. D., Rodionov D. G., Aguzarova L. A. Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis // INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL. 2026. no. 3. pp. 322-328. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2025_68_3_322. (Date of access 23.09.2026).

MLA

Nikolay Dmitriev, Rodionov D. G., Aguzarova L. A.. "Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL.3 (2026): 322-328. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2025_68_3_322.

APA

Dmitriev N. D., Rodionov D. G., Aguzarova L. A. (2026). Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis. INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL(3), 322-328. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2025_68_3_322

Chicago

Nikolay Dmitriev, Rodionov D. G., Aguzarova L. A.. "Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL, no. 3 (2026): 322-328. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2025_68_3_322.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Dmitriev N. D., Rodionov D. G., Aguzarova L. A. | title = Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis | journal = INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL | year = 2026 | issue = 3 | pages = 322-328 | doi = 10.55186/25876740_2025_68_3_322 }}

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DYNAMICS OF RUSSIA'S AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL IN CONDITIONS OF INCREASED PRODUCTION INTENSITY: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential in conditions of increased production intensity: statistical analysis

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